Tuesday 7 October 2014

How High Can EC Prices Go?

Last week I discussed about the high return rate among Executive Condominium (EC) buyers. Today I shall look at how high can an EC unit on a per sq ft (psf) basis be priced.

The latest EC project to open for e-applications or e-Apps is Lake Life at Taman Jurong. On 6 Oct 2014, it was reported that 1,200 applications was submitted for the 546-unit project. The strong turnout was no doubt aided by the Government plans for the Jurong Lake district.

But what was eye-popping was the psf quoted for the EC project. At $880-$890 psf, this will be the most expensive EC project to-date.


Type Size (sf) Quoted Price Range (psf) Estimated Price (Top Range)
5 bedroom 1,604-1,711 $880-$890 $1.42-$1.52 million
4 bedroom 1,195-1,701 $880-$890 $1.06-$1.51 million
3 bedroom 1,023-1,711 $880-$890 $0.91-$1.52 million
2 bedroom 743-969 $880-$890 $0.66-$0.86 million
Source: Lake Life e-brochure, news reports, Real Property Advisory Singapore


Can a family with an income ceiling of $12,000/mth afford the EC?

For a couple age 30 years, their affordability would look like this:


Household Income $12,000/mth $10,000/mth $8,000/mth
Mortgage Service Ratio (30%) $3,600 $3,000 $2,400
Total Debt Servicing Ratio (60%) Pass Pass Pass
Loan Tenure 30 years 30 years 30 years
Interest 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
Loan Amount  $1.04 million $869,000 $695,000
Purchase Price (80% loan) $1.30 million $1.09 million $869,000
Size of 3 bedroom 1,023 sf 1,023 sf 1,023 sf
Maximum psf $1,271 $1,065 $849
Source: Real Property Advisory Singapore


For a HDB upgrader, with more equity on hand, their affordability would look like this:


Household Income $12,000/mth $10,000/mth $8,000/mth
Mortgage Service Ratio (30%) $3,600 $3,000 $2,400
Total Debt Servicing Ratio (60%) Pass Pass Pass
Loan Tenure 20 years 20 years 20 years
Interest 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
Loan Amount $745,000 $620,000 $497,000
Purchase Price (70% loan) $1.06 million $886,000 $710,000
Purchase Price (60% loan) $1.24 million $1.03 million $828,000
Size of 3 bedroom 1,023 sf 1,023 sf 1,023 sf
Maximum psf (60% loan) $1,212 $1,007 $809
Source: Real Property Advisory Singapore


Looking at the numbers above, theoretically the developer can price their project at above $1,000 psf if there is no mortgage service ratio (MSR) and maximum loan tenure limit.

To afford the most expensive unit, the family has to have plenty of liquidity so as to fulfill the MSR.

Whatever it is, the applicants will be busy calculating how much cash they can afford to put for the downpayment so that they can catch the potential upside from the rejuvenation of Jurong Lake district.

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